We asked economist Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), to expand upon recent reports that show a marked improvement in the nation’s jobs picture. In January, 243,000 jobs were created and unemployment dropped significantly for some of the hardest-hit workers. Baker’s intepretation of the data presents a still-mixed economic picture, but one bright point stands out clearly: President Obama’s support of the U.S. auto industry has been key to improving job creation for America’s workers. Be sure to pick up a copy of Baker’s latest book, The End of Loser Liberalism: Making Markets Progressive.

Q.: As you’ve noted, the January drop in unemployment was especially sharp for African American and Latino workers. The jobless rate for black workers fell by 2.2percentage points to 13.6 percent, the lowest level since March 2009. For Latino workers, the jobless rate dropped by 0.5 to 10.5 percent, the lowest since January 2009. What’s behind this good news?

A.: My best guess is that much of this is a statistical quirk. These numbers are always erratic and can and do jump around month to month. However, part of the drop is probably real. I suspect that with the African American population much of the story is related to the increase in manufacturing and construction employment, which is likely clustered in the Midwest. These are sectors that disproportionately employ African American workers.

The improvement for Latinos is less easily explained. Of course, many Latinos are employed in construction, but more in the West and South than Midwest, which has seen the biggest gains.

Anyhow, I suspect that part of the improvement in the employment picture is weather related. We had unusually warm weather across the Northeast/Midwest in December and January, which means that construction and manufacturing were not disrupted as much as usual. That would make it appear that we are adding jobs.

Q.: Employment in manufacturing and construction also showed strong growth in January. You attribute the construction  job hike to unseasonably warm weather. But what about manufacturing? It’s been one area of job growth for several months now. What’s behind its resurgence and can it continue?

A.: Car sales clearly are the main factor here. Car sales have rebounded by more than 20 percent from their low in 2009. This means jobs not just in autos, but also in a wide range of supplier industries. This uptick is likely to continue as people replace older cars, but the rate of growth will certainly be slower.

Q.: Recent upward revisions to job growth for November and December mean the nation has averaged an increase of 201,000 jobs over the past three months. The January jobs data shows several measures of unemployment are coming down—for the unemployed and even for those who are discouraged and had given up looking for a job. Yet the numbers of the long-term unemployed  remain stubbornly the same—5.5 million workers. How do you interpret these data going forward?

A.: We have a huge backlog of unemployed workers and especially long-term unemployed. This is not going to change in a month. To give an idea of the relative magnitudes here, we need roughly 100,000 new jobs a month to keep pace with the growth of the labor force. That means that over the last three months we whittled down this pool of unemployed workers at the rate of roughly 100,000 a month. If all of these jobs went to the long-term unemployed, it would take us more than 4.5 years for all of them to get jobs.

Q.: We often hear that the reason hiring has been so low in this recovery is that employers can’t find workers with the education and skills they need. What’s your take on this assertion?

A.: This claim is inconsistent with the data. If the issue was skills then we would expect to see areas/occupations where wages are rising rapidly and there is other evidence of shortages, such as increased overtime for the existing workforce and a big increase in job openings. We do not see this in any major sector of the economy. There is no major occupation where wages are rising rapidly or in which average weekly hours have risen sharply. There also is no area that has anything resembling an excess of job opening to unemployed workers.

It continues to look overwhelming like this is a simple case of inadequate demand depressing employment for everyone. The rate of unemployment for college grads is still more than twice its pre-recession level. That is not consistent with employers having difficulty getting skilled workers.